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| - In 1956, M. King Hubert predicted that the US would peak in oil production between 1965-1970, then the rest of the world would follow suit and peak oil would be reached in the 1990's. The peak did happen in the US, but did not end up happening for the entire world, and Hubert's theory was disproven, although most predict that a Hubert's curve will occur in the 2020's. But what if oil had peaked.....
- Peak oil would be the end of the world, but won't because it is a liberal conspiracy designed to distract us from the real danger of the Bear Uprising of 2012. This article is a stub. You can get a Tip of the Hat* from Stephen by adding only truthiness to it.*Tip of the Hat not guaranteed.
- Peak oil is not the solution to the energy problem, but a representation of the problem. It may prove to stimulate solutions to the "environmental problem" created by centuries of careless consumption of fossil fuels. In the interim while alternative energy sources suited to transportation are developed, I believe we will see reduction of wastage and quantum leaps in efficiency - many of which technologies can be carried over to non-transportation energy sectors.Gruntguru 09:30, 8 March 2008 (UTC) References: The Hydrogen Economy by Jeremy Rifkin, has an easy to read section on Peak oil.
- Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, an energy crisis may develop because the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically. M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped
- (Source: The World's Endowment of Conventional Oil and its Depletion The assessment of the world's oil endowment is a sensitive subject with serious political implications and many vested interests, however, it is widely accepted that oil is a finite resource. Consequently, there are basic laws which describe the depletion of any finite resource:
* Production starts at zero;
* Production then rises to a peak which can never be surpassed;
* Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is depleted. This article is a . You can help My English Wiki by expanding it.
- Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted. It has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is not about running out of oil, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil.
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| - (Source: The World's Endowment of Conventional Oil and its Depletion The assessment of the world's oil endowment is a sensitive subject with serious political implications and many vested interests, however, it is widely accepted that oil is a finite resource. Consequently, there are basic laws which describe the depletion of any finite resource:
* Production starts at zero;
* Production then rises to a peak which can never be surpassed;
* Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is depleted. These simple rules were first applied by Dr. M. King Hubbert in the 1950s to the world’s petroleum resources. He produced an estimate of the time from discovery to depletion called Hubbert's peak theory that suggests that for any given region, from an individual oil field to the planet as a whole, the rate of oil production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve based on the costs of extracting it and the level of market demand (right). The theory accurately predicted the peak of US oil production in the 1970s. Since then various experts have debated the application of Hubbert's theory to global oil resources together with a range of energy alternatives including coal, natural gas methane and more. While there seems to be little agreement on the exact date when global oil production will peak, the average estimate seems to hover around 2010. Why this is important is because if the rate of world oil production begins to decline, then there will likely be less oil to meet the growing world demand thus producing an upward pressure of world oil prices. Critics, like those at CERA, suggest that in a free market economy this situation only means that higher only prices will mean that energy sources other than conventional oil will become more viable and that there will be increased pressure to find more innovative technologies to extract remaining oil reserves. The net result will be that global energy demand will continue to be met albeit at a slightly higher price, although not debilitatingly so. The debate is further complicated by how different companies and countries calculate their hydrocarbon reserves.Some published reserve numbers are spurious, and lax definition has led to misconceptions. For some reserves the cost in energy to extract them is more than the energy they can produce, so it makes sense to just leave them where they are. This has led to the concept ofEROEI, energy return on energy invested. As we can see in the graph to the left, not all oil is created equal. According to to geologist David Hughes some oil sources, like that extracted from oil shales (EROEI = 0.7–13.3, may not be worth the trouble. Study of the world's oil endowment involves the elements listed in the table. Reserves are defined as Median Probability reserves in which the risks of the estimate proving above or below the actual are evenly matched. They are about 180 Gb below published reserves, which in many cases include the above-mentioned spurious numbers. The numbers refer to Conventional oil, namely that which has supplied more than 95% of all oil to date and which will continue to dominate supply until well after peak, much of it free-flowing from giant fields found long ago. The estimate of Yet-to-Find takes into account discovery rates and the results of exploration drilling. It also recognizes that the world has now been thoroughly explored, meaning that few, if any, major new provinces await discovery. Adding 500 Gb to the Ultimate, which is itself implausible given the time and number of wells required on present trends, would delay the midpoint of depletion, which approximates to the peak, by only ten years. About half the Yet-to-Produce lies in just five Middle East countries. Their share of world production has risen from a low of 16% in 1985 to 27% in 1996, and is set to continue to rise in the absence of any new major province. The rising share will give an increasing control of the market that is expected to lead to a radical increase in oil price before the world midpoint of depletion is reached. In any event, by the end of the first decade of the 21 Century, production will have commenced its inevitable long term decline from resource constraints. Gas and non-conventional oil output will increase after peak, but it will not be a seamless transition due to the very different characteristics and depletion profiles of these hydrocarbons. This article is a . You can help My English Wiki by expanding it.
- Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted. It has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. Peak oil is not about running out of oil, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil. M. King Hubbert created and first used this theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, and its variants have been shown to be descriptive with reasonable accuracy of the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Various modified versions of his original logistic model are used, using more complex functions to allow for real world factors. While each version is applied to a specific domain, the central features of the Hubbert curve (that production stops rising, flattens and then declines) remain unchanged, albeit with different profiles. Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be. If political and economic changes only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak. According to the Export Land Model, oil exports drop much more quickly than production drops due to domestic consumption increases in exporting countries. Supply shortfalls would cause extreme price inflation, unless demand is mitigated with planned conservation measures and use of alternatives. Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used. Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred, we are on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly and, as proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, predict a global depression, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market which might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization, potentially leading to large population declines within a short period. Throughout the first two quarters of 2008, there were signs that a possible US recession was being made worse by a series of record oil prices. [citation needed]
- Peak oil is not the solution to the energy problem, but a representation of the problem. It may prove to stimulate solutions to the "environmental problem" created by centuries of careless consumption of fossil fuels. In the interim while alternative energy sources suited to transportation are developed, I believe we will see reduction of wastage and quantum leaps in efficiency - many of which technologies can be carried over to non-transportation energy sectors.Gruntguru 09:30, 8 March 2008 (UTC) While demand is rising, due to greater industrialisation and consumerism, the rate of new finds is no longer keeping up with it, and as existing fields are depleted, we will face a shortage, the question is no longer if, but when. Oil usage may be capped by increasing prices, and supply may be propped up by prospecting in areas previously considered too environmentally sensitive, but by the time it is really clear that we have crossed the peak, it may be too late to research alternatives. Many commentators are now saying we have reached peak oil. Only soaring prices will reveal whether this is actually the case, as marginal fields and extraction methods become viable at the higher prices.Gruntguru 09:30, 8 March 2008 (UTC) References: The Hydrogen Economy by Jeremy Rifkin, has an easy to read section on Peak oil.
- In 1956, M. King Hubert predicted that the US would peak in oil production between 1965-1970, then the rest of the world would follow suit and peak oil would be reached in the 1990's. The peak did happen in the US, but did not end up happening for the entire world, and Hubert's theory was disproven, although most predict that a Hubert's curve will occur in the 2020's. But what if oil had peaked.....
- Peak oil would be the end of the world, but won't because it is a liberal conspiracy designed to distract us from the real danger of the Bear Uprising of 2012. This article is a stub. You can get a Tip of the Hat* from Stephen by adding only truthiness to it.*Tip of the Hat not guaranteed.
- Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, an energy crisis may develop because the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically. M. King Hubbert first used the theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. His model, now called Hubbert peak theory, has since been used to predict the peak petroleum production of many other countries, and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Although predictions as to what exactly these negative effects will be vary greatly, "a growing number of oil-industry chieftains are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe: The world is approaching a practical limit to the number of barrels of crude oil that can be pumped every day." If political and economic change only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak. The Export Land Model shows that the amount of oil available internationally drops much more quickly than production in exporting countries because the exporting countries maintain an internal growth in demand. Shortfalls in production (and therefore supply) would cause extreme price inflation, unless demand is mitigated with planned conservation measures and use of alternatives, which would need to be implemented 20 years before the peak. Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast a peak will happen in the 2020s or 2030s and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.. Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that the peak has already occurred or will occur shortly and, as proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, predict a global depression, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market which might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization.
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