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| - The term Technological Singularity refers to the creation of computers with greater than human intelligence. It was first suggested by Vernor Vinge in 1993. Some have humorously dubbed it "Rapture for nerds". The rationale for the theory is: In a recent book, Ray Kurzweil extends the idea of the singularity to cover the fields of genetics, nanotech, robotics, and the rapidly changing definition of humanity. He says:
- The technological singularity is a theoretical future point of unprecedented technological progress, caused in part by the ability of machines to improve themselves using artificial intelligence. Statistician I. J. Good first wrote of an "intelligence explosion", suggesting that if machines could even slightly surpass human intellect, they could improve their own designs in ways unforeseen by their designers, and thus recursively augment themselves into far greater intelligences. The first such improvements might be small, but as the machine became more intelligent it would become better at becoming more intelligent, which could lead to an exponential and quite sudden growth in intelligence.
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| abstract
| - The term Technological Singularity refers to the creation of computers with greater than human intelligence. It was first suggested by Vernor Vinge in 1993. Some have humorously dubbed it "Rapture for nerds". The theory discusses the acceleration of technological progress which has been the central feature of the past century, and claims that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater-than-human intelligence. Science may achieve this breakthrough by several means, and Vinge claims that this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur before 2030. The rationale for the theory is: 1.
* Computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent may be developed. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes," then there is little doubt that more intelligent beings can be constructed shortly thereafter.) 2.
* Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as superhumanly intelligent entities. 3.
* Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent. 4.
* Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect. In a recent book, Ray Kurzweil extends the idea of the singularity to cover the fields of genetics, nanotech, robotics, and the rapidly changing definition of humanity. He says:
- The technological singularity is a theoretical future point of unprecedented technological progress, caused in part by the ability of machines to improve themselves using artificial intelligence. Statistician I. J. Good first wrote of an "intelligence explosion", suggesting that if machines could even slightly surpass human intellect, they could improve their own designs in ways unforeseen by their designers, and thus recursively augment themselves into far greater intelligences. The first such improvements might be small, but as the machine became more intelligent it would become better at becoming more intelligent, which could lead to an exponential and quite sudden growth in intelligence. Vernor Vinge later called this event "the Singularity" as an analogy between the breakdown of modern physics near a gravitational singularity and the drastic change in society he argues would occur following an intelligence explosion. In the 1980s, Vinge popularized the singularity in lectures, essays, and science fiction. More recently, some prominent technologists such as Bill Joy, founder of Sun Microsystems, voiced concern over the potential dangers of Vinge's singularity (Joy 2000). Following its introduction in Vinge's stories, particularly Marooned in Realtime and A Fire Upon the Deep, the singularity has also become a common plot element throughout science fiction. Others, most prominently Ray Kurzweil, define the singularity as a period of extremely rapid technological progress. Kurzweil argues such an event is implied by a long-term pattern of accelerating change that generalizes Moore's Law to technologies predating the integrated circuit and which he argues will continue to other technologies not yet invented. Critics of Kurzweil's interpretation consider it an example of static analysis, citing particular failures of the predictions of Moore's Law. Robin Hanson proposes that multiple "singularities" have occurred throughout history, dramatically affecting the growth rate of the economy. Like the agricultural and industrial revolutions of the past, the technological singularity would increase economic growth between 60 and 250 times. An innovation that allowed for replacement of virtually all human labor could trigger this singularity.
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