About: Wave of Automation (Donald King Timeline)   Sponge Permalink

An Entity of Type : dbkwik:resource/xoykDFxJFBgF02W_HRnEzw==, within Data Space : 134.155.108.49:8890 associated with source dataset(s)

Moore's law, the principle of the exponential growth in computing power, halted around 2025 because of engineering constraints (largely due to quantum interference in transistors). Thus, transistors were left largely at the 5 nm limit; computing power has not increased by much since then, and even now, a 1,000 USD computer possesses only about 200 billion FLOPS of processing capacity. Meanwhile, the human brain has a capacity of about one exaflop. Thus, for creative tasks, like art, science, and especially invention, that require a significant degree of brain processing capacity, humans will probably always be cheaper to use than computers.

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  • Wave of Automation (Donald King Timeline)
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  • Moore's law, the principle of the exponential growth in computing power, halted around 2025 because of engineering constraints (largely due to quantum interference in transistors). Thus, transistors were left largely at the 5 nm limit; computing power has not increased by much since then, and even now, a 1,000 USD computer possesses only about 200 billion FLOPS of processing capacity. Meanwhile, the human brain has a capacity of about one exaflop. Thus, for creative tasks, like art, science, and especially invention, that require a significant degree of brain processing capacity, humans will probably always be cheaper to use than computers.
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Row 1 info
  • 2030(xsd:integer)
Row 4 title
  • Key People
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  • Growth in Computer Power; Advancement of Software
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  • Time period
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  • Causes
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  • Increased wealth redistribution; Additional government welfare
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  • Political Implications
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  • Wave of Automation
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  • Automation of Industry Destroys Jobs
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  • 250(xsd:integer)
abstract
  • Moore's law, the principle of the exponential growth in computing power, halted around 2025 because of engineering constraints (largely due to quantum interference in transistors). Thus, transistors were left largely at the 5 nm limit; computing power has not increased by much since then, and even now, a 1,000 USD computer possesses only about 200 billion FLOPS of processing capacity. Meanwhile, the human brain has a capacity of about one exaflop. Thus, for creative tasks, like art, science, and especially invention, that require a significant degree of brain processing capacity, humans will probably always be cheaper to use than computers. However, simple tasks, including factory labor and office work, that do not require a significant fraction of human brain capacity, can be implemented cheaply with a superior robot or computer. Thus, the vast majority of jobs--employment involving simple or repetitive tasks, and even more complex labor, like work in the services sector--became replaced with automation, as corporations intended to save money and resources by not hiring humans. Thus, an increasingly high fraction of economic resources became concentrated in the "creative elite" of scientists, artists, and inventors, whose work could not be replicated by machine. These individuals provided ideas that could be used to produce new products or make the production process more efficient. The actual products would be manufactured physically by robots, or, if non-physical (like books or information) would be distributed on digital networks. As most of the population became unemployed and unable to afford many of these products, most of the products were consumed by members of the elite themselves. Thus, companies transitioned to providing luxury goods for the rising elite, and, without the necessity to use the broader unemployed population, the elite became an entirely closed, self-contained economic system. Members of the elite would come up with ideas for new products or ways to make the production process better, and these products would be consumed by other members of the elite. Government redistribution takes some of the elite's economic resources (production) and gives it to the larger, unemployed population, thus draining the elite's closed economic system of wealth. Different politicians disagree on how much wealth should be distributed in this manner. Members of the Rockefeller Party (including Annie McPherson) propose only a moderate amount of government welfare, while those in the Democratic Party (like President Albert Norman) feel that more government economic power is appropriate. Members of the Patriot Party, including Donald King, desire more public revenues to be spent on the military, and less on welfare.
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