The POD for this timeline is the Battle of Worcester. In the OTL this battle never happened. The two armies faced off and with the Welsh at the end of a long supply chain they did not force a battle with Henry IV. This timeline sees not only that battle happening, but with the Welsh winning it. With such a victory the entire territory west of the River Severn would have been open to the Welsh. With support from the Bretons, the Scots and official recognition from the French Glyndwr would have been well placed to force the English to recognise his independent Principality.
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