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| - The election has seen the worst result for a majority voting bloc since the 1995 elections when the Manzuxiehui ousted the Minzudang, whereas the NPP have attained the largest number of seats an opposition party has ever received beating the Socialists 211 seats in 1995. Manzuxiehui party chairman Hu Zhengming has stated that the Manzuxiehui will “push to form a coalition as soon as possible” highlighting the fact that the Manzuxiehui still retains a plurality of seats. He has also stated that any coalition with the Manzuxiehui will provide the “best governance for Manchuria”. NPP leader Feng Huiyin has stated that the election shows “a clear desire by the Manchurian people to change the stagnant, corrupt politics that has plagued the nation for decades”. She has stated that the Progressive Alliance is committed to “negotiating a coalition that will bring real change to Manchuria”. File:Manchu parliament 2015.svg The results are as follows - Manzuxiehui: 285 seats New Progressive Party: 212 seats (Progressive Alliance) Green Party: 11 seats (Progressive Alliance) Democratic Union of Change: 10 seats (Progressive Alliance) Socialist Party of Manchuria: 103 seats Qinglonghui: 23 seats Manchu Communist Party: 21 seats United People’s Party: 20 seats
* 23rd: Source 2015 election - coalition talks beginby Huo ShixiongFile:NPP rally.png The elections is Manchuria have yielded an unprecedented result - that of a non-majority voting bloc. Since 2002 the Manzuxiehui has dominated the legislature and the premierial office, holding comfortable majorities. Yet a series of corruption scandals, economic contraction, and harsh austerity measures means that the Manzuxiehui has lost support to the anti-establishment and populist New Progressive Party. Such a trend of course can be seen across the world - its no surprise that the NPP's boost in support came at the same time similar anti-establishment forces in Europe made gains this year. And yet indecisive results mean now that a coalition must be formed before the Premier can officially open the new Assembly for its first meeting in January 2016. The Manzuxiehui currently hold the most seats within the Assembly at 285 - 58 short of a majority. Manzuxiehui officials before the election were well aware that they would not be able to form a majority, and as such reached out to find possible coalition partners from opposition parties. The party the Manzuxiehui are moat ideologically similar to - the conservative Qinglonghui - indicated that they were willing to cooperate with the Manzuxiehui, and as such the Manzuxiehui did not run candidates in the districts of Hulin City and Raohe County which subsequently passed into the Qinglonghui's hands. However, the election night proved to be disappointing for the Qinglonghui who lost 3 of their 26 seats. If the Manzuxiehui indeed did form a coalition with the Qinglonghui it would be 14 seats short of a majority. Potentially a deal with the centrist United People's Party would bring this up to 349 (a 6 seat majority) but its unlikely that the nationalist Qinglonghui would agree to a coalition including the Korean-focused UPP. The Progressive Alliance are in a weaker position to create a coalition. With only 233 seats they would need 110 members of opposition parties to agree to form a coalition. UPP chairman Ri Ki-nam has already stated that his party would support any NPP-led coalition provided it did not include the Qinglonghui, but this would simply meant the Progressive Alliance would need another 90 seats to form a coalition. The Qinglonghui have already ruled out the possibility of participating in any NPP-led coalition and it is unlikely the far left Manchu Communist Party would find much in common with the liberal Progressive Alliance. The possibility of a "Grand Coalition" between the Manzuxiehui and NPP, according to political scientist Shen Liangping of the Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, is "not to be dismissed out of hand". Ideologically both the Manzuxiehui and the NPP are largely centrist and pragmatic, with their being some common ground in regard to economics especially "which is key to any coalition" Shen points out. However, many in the Progressive Alliance would oppose a coalition which would go against the NPP's promise to "change the stagnant, corrupt politics" of Manchuria. Chang Shengzuo - possible kingmaker?File:Chang Shengzuo press meeting.jpg Perhaps crucial to any coalition would be the participation of the Socialist Party. In the last elections the SPM were ousted from the role of main opposition party by the NPP winning 99 seats, down from 198. However, following First Secretary's Chang Shengzuo's modernisation of the party which has seen it move away from more hardline leftist polices to social democracy (similar to many European socialist parties) it has regained some of its support, increasing its share of the vote and the amount of seats it holds to 103. The SPM has so far made no indications of whether it wishes to enter a coalition with the NPP or the Manzuxiehui. If the SPM entered a coalition with the Manzuxiehui it would give them 388 seats, equal to that the Manzuxiehui possessed before the election. Such a coalition would most likely be a political victory for Manzuxiehui chairman Hu Zhengming and Premier Liu Zhou, both of whom are positioned on the left of the Manzuxiehui and thus would strengthen their positions. However, its possible that many on the right of the Manzuxiehui would oppose such a coalition. Alternatively if the Progressive Alliance and the UPP form a coalition with the SPM they would be rewarded with a majority of 13. However, such a coalition could be unstable as hardline members of the SPM may be opposed to some of the more right wing economic positions of the Progressive Alliance and facilitate a split between the SPM's moderates and hardliners. As well as that the Progressive Alliance may not want to be seen in a coalition with the formerly communist SPM who are to some NPP supporters still a symbol of repression, and have also been implicated in corruption scandals alongside the Manzuxiehui. Whatever the case negotiations will likely be long and arduous. If no party can form a coalition then the Manzuxiehui may attempt to govern as a minority administration (as the Minzudang did after the 1995 election), or Premier LI will call for new elections. Nevertheless the result remains clear - Manchurians want to change the political establishment and the election will pave the way towards that goal.
* 26th: Source Premier urges for coalition to be formedby Huo ShixiongFile:Li Zhou 2015 eection.jpg Premier Liu Zhou has called for parties to form a coalition in the wake of inconclusive elections last Tuesday in which the ruling Manzuxiehui lost its majority in the Supreme National Assembly. Liu has stated that if parties do not form a coalition quickly Manchuria is in danger of "entering a long period of political instability, financial uncertainly and social chaos", and that for the sake of stability parties must reach a consensus. The election results and the fallout that accompany them mirror that of Spain's following their election in which no party received a majority to rule. Spanish stocks have since faced a fall as investors baulk at the post-election chaos and the possibility of a socialist government that includes the far-left Podemos. The Executive Yuan is keen to promote its pro-business policies and to retain the shaky economic foundations that have been constructed since the economy contracted in December 2014. Liu has indicated that if a coalition is not reached she will dissolve the Assembly again and call for new elections - a reminder to her party to accept any conditions for a coalitions if only to prevent the Manzuxiehui from losing more seats in another election. Last Tuesday's elections resulted in the second "hung parliament" in Manchurian history with no party attaining a majority from within the legislature. The Manzuxiehui lost their majority of 388 being reduced to 285 seats whilst the Progressive Alliance (led by the New Progressive Party) won 233 seats in the best result of any opposition party in a Manchurian election. The Manzuxiehui hoped to form a coalition with the nationalist Qinglonghui , but were unprepared for not only their loss of support but the voters drastic rejection of the current Manzuxiehui government. The Progressive Alliance however has also faced difficulties expanding their coalition of themselves and the Korean United People's Party. As such, the Manzuxiehui have been keen to enter a "Grand Coalition" of the Manzuxiehui and the Progressive Alliance, with the two parties being ideologically similar in terms of economic and foreign policy. However, the Progressive Alliance has been cautious to enter a coalition with the Manzuxiehui as they feel it would undermine their electoral promises of reforming Manchurian politics and removing the corruption prevalent within the system. The talks today indicate that the Progressive Alliance has rejected any proposals of a grand coalition. Both parties have also been seen trying to court the Socialist Party (led by Chang Shengzuo) who would provide them with an electoral majority. Chang met with Manzuxiehui leader Hu Zhengming where coalition discussions have also been held, with Chang expected to meet with NPP leader Feng Huiyin later this week. It is likely that Chang will form a coalition with the NPP unless the Manzuxiehui's rightist faction are wiling to compromise with their economic policies, something the more leftist Liu Zhou is encouraging her party to do.
* 30th: Source Chang Shengzuo - Manzuxiehui will "have to compromise"by Chen ZhaoxuFile:Chang Shengzuo shadey.jpg The First Secretary of the Socialist Party of Manchuria, Chang Shengzou, has indicated that he will not enter a coalition with the Manzuxiehui unless they "radically change their proposals for Manchuria". This follows a week of negotiations with the Manzuxiehui and the SPM who have sought to form a coalition within the Supreme National Assembly which officially opens on the 7th January to elect a new chairman. In a press statement released on the SPM's website Chang criticised the Manzuxiehui, stating they would only enter an alliance with the Manzuxiehui if they repudiated the government austerity measures which were described by the SPM in the election as the "most brutal outside of the Eurozone. Chang has also indicated that the Manzuxiehui must compromise on its defence and foreign policy, which he accused of being "subservient to the United States" and "would threaten Manchurian sovereignty" due to the factions of the Manzuxiehui supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He has said that the Manzuxiehui would "have to compromise" before a coalition can be formed. Analysis - Major blow to the Manzuxiehui Changs harsh words towards the Manzuxiehui - especially concerning economic policy - indicates that the SPM are slowly edging towards an alliance with the Progressive Alliance, a move that alarms both the Manzuxiehui and the right wing of the Progressive Alliance. For the Manzuxiehui it would deny them control of the Assembly, something senior NPP figures have pushed for adamantly since the election. For the right and progressive wings of the Progressive Alliance it would entail a coalition with their former idealogical enemies, considered an unacceptable proposal. Certainly leftist members of the Manzuxiehui such as Hu Zhengming have advocated for the lessening of the austerity program spearheaded by former Premier Jin Pai Nai and continued by his leftist successor Liu Zhou - a coalition with the socialists would strengthen the leftists position within the Manzuxiehui. Liu Zhou's recent comments urging the parties to cooperate has indicated that she would prefer a Manzuxiehui-Socialist coalition over a Progressive-Socialist coalition. Nevertheless, Chang's comment may have had the unintended side effect of deflecting the role of election kingmaker from himself to NPP Chairman Feng Huiyin. With a Manzuxiehui-Socialist coalition now looking unlikely the Manzuxiehui may try and form a "grand coalition" with the Progressive Alliance, meaning that the Progressive Alliance will have to choose to either align itself with the Manzuxiehui or the SPM, with neither proposal being seen as desirable by certain factions within the Progressive Alliance.
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