| abstract
| - The technology timeline started off a single page of predictions, which has grown to 15 pages (2005 version). The 2005 version is here [1] The 2001 version is here [2] As with any prediction that looks a bit further out there are disagreements. If you do not agree with a particular prediction then you have made your own prediction. Just understand why you have made that prediction and the reasons behind it. If you can't give well reasoned answers then just maybe your wrong. Alexander Graham Bell may have the patent on the telephone but he didn't foresee a time when every house would have one and that telephones would go mobile. The Introduction for the 2005 version is below Welcome to the 2005 edition of the BT Technology Timeline As usual the timeline comes with the same caveats. The authors (Ian Neild and Ian Pearson) and BT () are not involved in all of the research described in the timeline. We also do not necessarily approve or condone what we are predicting will happen. We are just saying they are possible, and listing some obvious implications. The timeline has often been used by various people and companies around the world to start off workshops and brainstorms. Look at each entry and think "is it likely?" You may agree or disagree with the prediction. If you disagree, is the date too soon or too late, is the idea just too ludicrous or does it scare you? Go back 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or more years and imagine explaining what we do today. Then debate how it will affect you, your life and your business. Many of the items may seem like science fiction, but as the great scientist Arthur C Clarke said: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." - Profiles of The Future, 1961 (Clarke's third law). The majority of the feedback we receive on the timeline is positive, but we do receive some criticism. But just because you don't agree with us now, don't worry, in 10 years’ time you may change your mind. Human technology has moved from the first flight to flying to the moon in around 60 years - which was a remarkable achievement. In the past 60 years we have gone from Colossus - a machine the size of a room used to crack supposedly unbreakable codes during a war - to the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 - machines that bring virtual war into a room. These games machines have the processing power of super computers just 10 years ago yet are now used for entertainment. In the next 60 years we will see nanotechnology and biotechnology making impacts on our life that might seem like magic to us but will be quite normal to our children's children. The world is speeding up as each generation learns from their kids, and through knowledge sharing via the Internet, so who knows what the next 60 years will bring? Our timeline can only cover a small sample of what is coming. I look at the world in which my one-year-old will grow up, and can’t help comparing it to my world, or my parent’s or grandparent’s worlds. We still do the same basic things in life but in terms of how we do them, we may as well be on different planets as different timelines. The sources for the timeline include the preceding BT technology timeline, the web, magazines, chats with world experts and from interesting newsletters such as the Harrow report () and Peter Cochrane (). The future comes to us all at 60 minutes an hour but the timeline allows us to look a bit further up the road and see what could be happening. It is up to you decide what to do about it, or even to ignore it, but we certainly hope you will enjoy thinking about the future and the impact it will have on you in work, life and play.
|
![[RDF Data]](/fct/images/sw-rdf-blue.png)