rdfs:comment
| - The entirety of American policy in Iraq is stripped down to a single thought: Iran. After years of organizational chaos, the US has simplified its plan in Iraq to preventing Iran from becoming a regional hegemon. Once lofty thoughts of forging a democracy in the Middle East as a beacon of hope, thoughts of fighting militant Islam safely away from home shores, even stabilizing world oil production, have taken a back seat to limiting Iran's ambitions. An American withdrawal from Iraq would allow Iran to leverage its allies in Iraq's dominant Shiite south to eventually gain control of the country. This influence would extend to the significant Shiite communities on the oil-rich Persian Gulf's western shore. Without a US military presence, the military incompetence of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and
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abstract
| - The entirety of American policy in Iraq is stripped down to a single thought: Iran. After years of organizational chaos, the US has simplified its plan in Iraq to preventing Iran from becoming a regional hegemon. Once lofty thoughts of forging a democracy in the Middle East as a beacon of hope, thoughts of fighting militant Islam safely away from home shores, even stabilizing world oil production, have taken a back seat to limiting Iran's ambitions. An American withdrawal from Iraq would allow Iran to leverage its allies in Iraq's dominant Shiite south to eventually gain control of the country. This influence would extend to the significant Shiite communities on the oil-rich Persian Gulf's western shore. Without a US military presence, the military incompetence of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar would be an invitation to Iran to conquer that shore. That would put one-quarter of the world's oil output, 20 million barrels/day, under Tehran's control. Iran would have the power to shut off the world's economy. In the short term, American domestic political realities require an Iraq plan. If concern for Iran precludes leaving, than we are left with two choices: run Iraq as a permanent protectorate or share influence with other nations to isolate and control Iran. Having a permanent protectorate does not fit with America's current election climate, an observation obvious to foreign observers. To a world deeply threatened by, and hostile to a lone superpower too powerful to contain directly, this is an extraordinary opportunity. For the first time in over a decade, the US is going to have to negotiate with the world community. Does Iran matter to us in ways beyond Middle East oil? Well, either a lot, think World War III, or just somewhat, think Mussolini. You will have to make up your own mind. We will start with a quick survey of the issues and then start the debate. A good map helps:
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