POD: The South wins the US Civil War when after the Battle of Bull Run, the ANV pursues the AP and destroys it in the Battle of Frederick in Maryland, leaving Washington DC wide open to attack by C.S. forces. The ANV marches into DC unopposed, earning it recognition by France and Britain and forcing the USA to surrender to the Confederacy and cede it Arizona, OTL Oklahoma and Kentucky. C.S. independence is recognized on July 4th when the Treaty of Richmond is signed.