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Freakonomics

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One example of the authors' use of economic theory involves demonstrating the existence of cheating among Sumo wrestlers. In a Sumo tournament, all wrestlers in the top division compete in 15 matches and face demotion if they do not win at least eight of them. The Sumo community is very close-knit, and the wrestlers at the top levels tend to know each other well. The authors looked at the final match, and considered the case of a wrestler with seven wins, seven losses, and one fight to go, fighting against an 8-6 wrestler. Statistically, the 7-7 wrestler should have a slightly below even chance, since the 8-6 wrestler is slightly better. However, the 7-7 wrestler actually wins around 80% of the time. Levitt uses this statistic and other data gleaned from Sumo wrestling matches, along with Finding money, stocks, and inflation too restrictively well-documented, the authors fled to subjects the principles of the dismal science were never before bent to fit. Thanks to this shrewdness, no one could safely call them foul for their predictions on the fluctuations in value of prison cigarettes against the knife standard, or rebut their theories on how the fear of AIDS infection affects army enlistment. Free from the assaults of critics, the authors were free to promulgate their ideas, not to mention make bank-loads of money.

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Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything

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2005 1037040.0

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美國 n26:

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蘋果橘子經濟學 / 魔鬼经济学 Freakonomics: the Hidden Side of Everything A Rogue Economist Explores

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n9: 經濟

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Hardback & Paperback

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n7: 英文

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n29: n35: Steven D. Levitt（李維特）, Stephen J. Dubner（杜伯納）

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336

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李明（台灣版）,劉祥亞（簡體版）

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n32: 大塊文化

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Superfreakonomics

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ISBN 0-06-123400-1 , ISBN 0-06-089637-X 9789867291936

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One example of the authors' use of economic theory involves demonstrating the existence of cheating among Sumo wrestlers. In a Sumo tournament, all wrestlers in the top division compete in 15 matches and face demotion if they do not win at least eight of them. The Sumo community is very close-knit, and the wrestlers at the top levels tend to know each other well. The authors looked at the final match, and considered the case of a wrestler with seven wins, seven losses, and one fight to go, fighting against an 8-6 wrestler. Statistically, the 7-7 wrestler should have a slightly below even chance, since the 8-6 wrestler is slightly better. However, the 7-7 wrestler actually wins around 80% of the time. Levitt uses this statistic and other data gleaned from Sumo wrestling matches, along with the effect that allegations of corruption have on match results, to conclude that those who already have 8 wins collude with those who are 7-7 and let them win, since they have already secured their position for the following tournament. The authors attempt to demonstrate the power of data mining. Many of their results emerge from Levitt's analysis of various databases, and asking the right questions. For example, cheating in the Chicago school system is inferred from detailed analysis of students' answers to multiple choice questions. But first Levitt asks, "What would the pattern of answers look like if the teacher cheated?" The simple answer: difficult questions at the end of a section will be more correct than easy ones at the beginning. Finding money, stocks, and inflation too restrictively well-documented, the authors fled to subjects the principles of the dismal science were never before bent to fit. Thanks to this shrewdness, no one could safely call them foul for their predictions on the fluctuations in value of prison cigarettes against the knife standard, or rebut their theories on how the fear of AIDS infection affects army enlistment. Free from the assaults of critics, the authors were free to promulgate their ideas, not to mention make bank-loads of money.