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Alternative History:Possibility vs plausibility

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While both terms are often used interchangeably, nowhere more so than in an alternate history discussion should these two terms be differentiated. While "possible" refers to *any* events that (according to our current body of knowledges) could be true, "plausible" refers to that which is *most likely* to be true. The best way to illustrate this is with the following classical example: The same type of process would apply to any point of departure (POD) and usually a judged based on some or all of the following:

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While both terms are often used interchangeably, nowhere more so than in an alternate history discussion should these two terms be differentiated. While "possible" refers to *any* events that (according to our current body of knowledges) could be true, "plausible" refers to that which is *most likely* to be true. The best way to illustrate this is with the following classical example: A man is walking in the forest and comes upon two paths. The first is well maintained and inviting while the second has clearly been overlooked for years and looks foreboding. Although the person could *possibly* choose either of the paths, his psychological makeup as well as outside factors would make the choice of one more *plausible* than the other. A phobic person would choose to avoid the one which feeds his fears (darkness, insects, being alone, etc...) or he might simply be afraid of dirtying his clothes. A bored person on the other hand would probably go for the second in hope of seeing something exciting. The same type of process would apply to any point of departure (POD) and usually a judged based on some or all of the following: * Are the persons involved acting "in characters"? (based, for example, on published biographies) * Do decisions taken follow what the person's thoughts privately? (based on private memos and the like) * Is there a precedent? Have similar events in our timeline (OTL) unfolded in a similar fashion? * Does it follow scientific knowledge? Of course the two last points would seem to preclude any counterfactual POD, however in these cases, it is usually less the POD itself which would be judged for plausibility than the reaction of people to it.